Digital Currency has $12 billion worth of open interest for call options, which means purchasing, and $7.8 billion for put options, which means selling. Among the options market participants, 72% are Deribit, 12% are from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and 9% are from Binance. However, most options are useless now that Bitcoin’s price has surged 68% in the last three months.
Bitcoin supporters and bears alike are vested in influencing the cryptocurrency’s spot price as the expiration date draws near. However, optimistic investors’ targets above $110,000 do not guarantee that Bitcoin will actually reach that amount.
Bulls are Better Bitcoin off Before Year-end
Bitcoin continues to be in high demand among institutions, with $4.5 billion flowing into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first twelve days of December. With an average price of $98,783 per Bitcoin, MicroStrategy acquired 21,550 BTC from December 2nd to the 8th. On the same day, December 10th, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings revealed they had acquired 11,744 digital currency units.
A US strategic Bitcoin reserve, proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, wants to acquire up to 1 million BTC over time, and investors are also considering whether or not to approve this proposal. The Lone Star State isn’t the only one thinking about this. The lawmaker from Texas has made it clear that “no taxpayer funds would be spent on buying Bitcoin” in his proposal to make Bitcoin a state reserve asset for at least five years.
Bitcoin bulls are in a stronger position strategically as year-end options expire, considering the present state of the market. For instance, as of 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will remain valuable if Bitcoin’s price stays around $100,500. If the price of bitcoin is higher than $100,000 when the option to sell expires becomes null and void, this situation will occur.
Bitcoin Bears Want Sub-$95,000
Here are five possible outcomes based on the current pricing trends. While these results account for open interest imbalances as a basis for theoretical profits, they do not account for complicated techniques like selling put options to acquire exposure to an increase in price.
- Between $90,000 and $95,000: $4.6 billion in calls vs. $1.1 billion inputs. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $3.6 billion.
- Between $95,000 and $100,000: $5.6 billion calls vs. $520 million puts, favoring calls by $5.1 billion.
- Between $100,000 and $105,000: $7.12 billion in calls vs. $240 million in puts, favoring calls by $6.9 billion.
- Between $105,000 and $112,000: $8.13 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $8 billion.
Before the expiration on December 27, bears must push prices below $95,000 to prevent heavy losses. But if bulls can get Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $105,000, they will have maximized their gains. The bullish momentum might be sustained into early 2026 if such a scenario plays out.
The $19.8 billion options expiration is set for December 27 at 8:00 a.m. UTC, and investors are preparing for it. Traders who are positive on Bitcoin can profit from the cryptocurrency’s recent climb above $100,000, which has surprised bearish investors and could lead to a new all-time high.
Related: Bitcoin Set for Growth with Institutional Support in 2025
Summary
Call options on Bitcoin are worth $12 billion, while put options are worth $7.8 billion. Put options are no longer useful due to Bitcoin’s 68% price increase in three months. Major acquisitions by MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings indicate that institutional interest is rising.
Bitcoin bulls are in a strong position as the December 27 expiration draws near; they stand to gain if the price of Bitcoin remains over $95,000. Optimists may be able to extend their winning streak beyond 2026 if the price reaches $105,000. With a $19.8 billion expiration looming over market outcomes, bears must bring Bitcoin’s price below $95,000 to prevent losses.
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