Bitcoin (BTC) is getting close to key price levels that indicate investors should brace themselves for a possible bear market following a month of optimism. From its all-time high of $104,000, the leading cryptocurrency in the world has fallen by around 5% and is currently in a position to reverse its short-term structure.
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ahead?
When comparing the Bitcoin chart to the gold chart, the fractal pattern indicates that the price might fall by 35% from its peak, marking the start of a cold bear market. Is this market cycle coming to a close, or are we in for more pleasant shocks in the coming months?
When the price of Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new record high of $104,000 on December 4, 2004, it excited the crypto world. Following Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential election, there was a remarkable surge, representing a 47% increase.
But even after just seven days, the bullish momentum that the orange coin displayed throughout November appears to have faded. The quotations indicate the likelihood of a collapse in the next few days, as they are 5% lower than the ATH at 98,190 dollars.
Bitcoin Liquidations and Bearish Signals
The bulls have been able to stem Bitcoin’s decline since the start of the week, preventing the cryptocurrency from plunging much lower. From this point forward, nevertheless, the distance from the five-digit price may once again widen unless demand returns to exert itself strongly.
Massive liquidation activity on futures exchanges occurred two days ago, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price drop below $100,000.Long positions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other big altcoins accounted for the bulk of the $1.5 billion wiped from the crypto market.
Due to excessive speculation and misuse of financial leverage, the market had not seen such a thorough cleaning since 2021.
A second, more reasonable, Bitcoin price surge may begin soon after restoring the financing rate. Anyway, the market attitude has been reset, and traders who exposed themselves to the cryptocurrency around its peak now see it differently.
The bear fractal that has developed in the Bitcoin chart relative to the gold chart is another indicator that the price of Bitcoin could fall. According to analyst Peter Brandt, an important resistance level between 34 and 37 has been reached by the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio (BTCUSD/GC1!).
Bitcoin RSI Signals Bearish Drop
According to historical data, this region is the local peak of the cryptocurrency market, from which a precipitous decline typically commences. In addition, with 14 weeks of data, the RSI index for Bitcoin has hit an overbought level of 73 points, indicating plenty of space for a bearish move.
When the Bitcoin Bear Market technical analysis revealed similar trends in the past, the price dropped significantly. Take March 2024 as an example. The cryptocurrency price was 74,000 USD, and the Bitcoin-Gold ratio had already hit the 34-37 resistance level alongside an overbought Relative Strength Index.
From that point on, the entire crypto landscape began to experience a 33% correction in quotations. When Bitcoin first broke beyond the $69k mark in November 2021, a comparable scenario played out. Those months saw an asset price movement affected by the same visual conditions we see now.
By March 2025, we may see a spike toward the 50-period exponential moving average (weekly), if past trends are any indication. The outcome would be a 30–35% drop in price, with a subsequent recovery to around $65,000–$69,000. This price range corresponds with the 1.00 Fibonacci line.
Bitcoin FOMO Surge Consolidation
In a world where there is complete fear of missing out (FOMO), Bitcoin’s market cap has increased by about $900 trillion, a 90% increase in just two months. It would be great if the traders who have joined the market in the past several months could cash out and help keep prices at more “normal” levels.
However, bear consolidation does not always have to result in a precipitous price drop. The bull market might continue unabated if Bitcoin fell to $80,000 (just below the 50-day exponential moving average).
Then, when some time has passed for accumulation, we can probably try again, this time with more force, to reach new price levels. According to some analysts, the true peak of this bull cycle won’t happen until the fourth quarter of 2025, which is still more than a year away.
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